For US, First Is Deceiving

A very good friend, a big sports fan who appreciates soccer but doesn't really follow it closely, sent me an e-mail on Thursday morning, hours after the U.S. national team had escaped Trinidad and Tobago with a 1-0 win, saying, "Looked like it was an ugly one but we'll take 3, right? Am I right that the U.S. will coast through and qualify now?"

"Coast?" What would have given him that idea? And then I looked at some of the press reports that circulated following the game. "U.S. moves to verge of 6th straight World Cup berth," said the AP, while CNN's headline was, "United States and Mexico march on to 2010." ESPN mentioned the "vital steps" taken toward qualification, while most other outlets referenced the mere two standings points needed from the final two games to secure a summer in South Africa.

So, we're all set then. It's a mere formality, right?

It's telling that most of the commentary that followed Wednesday's very ugly (and lucky) win are reluctant to discuss how deceiving the Americans' position atop the CONCACAF standings really is. Yes, they're in first place at 5-2-1 and yes, they need just two points from their games at Honduras (Oct. 10) and home to Costa Rica (Oct. 14) to qualify. The U.S. could qualify even after losing both games.

But the truth is that advancement is far from a foregone conclusion. A look at the schedule suggests that the fate of Bob Bradley and Co. very likely will come down to that Oct. 14 game at RFK Stadium -- a winner-take-all match against the Ticos. Combine the tension of a 90-minute battle for a World Cup berth, a quality opponent, CONCACAF refereeing and the very nature of a sport in which one card or crossbar can determine the winner and loser, and you have a pretty uncomfortable scenario.

Just ask the Scots or the Saudis, who saw their South African dreams end this week with one late mistake on home soil.

There are two things to consider -- the schedule and the national team's form. The latter has not been convincing. Falling behind to El Salvador at home demonstrated the side's continuing knack for making critical early errors. The U.S. showed resiliency in coming back to win, but followed that with a disjointed, uninspiring performance in Trinidad that was salvaged only by an unlikely long-range blast from Ricardo Clark. The U.S. won't go far if it's depending on low-scoring defensive midfielders for its offense.

"I know people like to look at teams on paper and say, 'This should be an easy win.' These games are not easy anywhere in the world," Landon Donovan said in Trinidad. "There are a lot of teams that struggle to get through these games. We played well. We didn't play perfect, but we got the result we needed."

He's right, to an extent. Most countries find that qualifying resembles a minefield rather than a cruise. But it was hard not to notice the dropoff in performance compared to the end of the Confederations Cup, and the next two opponents will not be nearly as forgiving as El Salvador and Trinidad.

Which is where the schedule comes in. On Oct. 10, the U.S. heads to Honduras (4-3-1), Mexico (5-3-0) hosts El Salvador (2-4-2) and Costa Rica (4-4-0) entertains Trinidad (1-5-2). With the Salvadorans needing a miracle to stay alive and the Soca Warriors already eliminated, it's nearly impossible to imagine Mexico and Costa Rica failing to take all three points from those matches. In the hexagonal, home teams have compiled a scary 18-3-3 record. Trinidad accounts for two of those defeats, and the third was Mexico's stunning destruction of Costa Rica on Sept. 5.

Honduras is 8-0-0 at home and has outscored its guests 22-3. Based on the Americans' current form, would you bet on them in San Pedro Sula?

Victories by the home sides on Oct. 10 would leave the standings looking like this:

Mexico 18 pts.
Honduras 16 pts. (ahead on goal differential)
USA 16 pts.
Costa Rica 15 pts.

On Oct. 14, Mexico heads to Trinidad and Honduras visits El Salvador. That latter game may be a bit tricky for the Hondurans, even though El Salvador will have been eliminated at that point. But because Honduras will be ahead of the US on goal difference, (it already is up by one and will increase that with a victory on Oct. 10), the Americans will need at least a point against Costa Rica to ensure passage. So we're back to that tense scenario - hoping to avoid a disaster at RFK Stadium in the final game against an equally-desperate opponent.

The odds are still with the U.S. But it is far from a "coast."